The FIBA Women’s Basketball World Cup in Berlin is entering its decisive phase, and the quarterfinal picture is almost complete.
Under the tournament’s new 16-team format, the four group winners advanced directly to the quarterfinals, while the second- and third-place teams had to survive a single-elimination qualification round. That structure has already produced two confirmed quarterfinal matchups, with the final two places set to be decided later today.
The most obvious favorite remains the United States.
Team USA went 3-0 in Group D and earned direct passage to the quarterfinals after victories over China, Italy and Czechia. The Americans opened with a 94-61 win over China, survived a major scare from Italy in a 55-52 victory, and then closed group play by overwhelming Czechia 105-64. Despite missing several established stars, the defending world champions have once again shown the depth, athleticism and defensive pressure that make them the standard of the tournament.
Their opponent will be Hungary, which booked its place in the last eight with an 84-63 victory over Japan on Tuesday. Hungary has now won three consecutive games after beginning the tournament with a heavy loss to France. Dorka Juhász remains the focal point inside, while the team’s size and improving confidence have made it one of the most interesting surprise stories of the tournament. FIBA itself has framed the matchup around whether Hungary’s frontcourt can create enough problems to threaten the reigning champions.
The United States will still enter that game as the clear favorite. The Americans have averaged 84.7 points and 48 rebounds per game in Berlin, while Hungary has averaged 72.5 points and 44.3 rebounds. Hungary can make the game uncomfortable if it controls the paint and slows the tempo, but an upset would rank among the biggest in recent Women’s World Cup history.
The second confirmed quarterfinal will feature Belgium against host nation Germany.
Belgium reached the quarterfinals directly by winning Group C, going unbeaten against Türkiye, Puerto Rico and Australia. The defending European champions have looked like one of the most balanced teams in the competition, and Emma Meesseman has once again been central to everything they do. Through the group phase, she averaged 18.3 points per game and ranked among the tournament leaders in efficiency. Julie Allemand has also been one of the best distributors in Berlin.
Germany’s path has been very different.
The hosts opened the tournament with an 83-53 loss to Spain before responding with victories over Japan and Mali. That was enough to send them into the qualification round, where they produced their best performance of the tournament in a dominant 94-56 win over South Korea. The victory sent Germany into the Women’s World Cup quarterfinals for the first time in program history. Marie Gülich led the way with 19 points, while Germany used its size, depth and home-court energy to control the game from the opening stages.
Belgium should still be considered the favorite in that matchup because of its experience, continuity and high-end talent. But Germany will have something Belgium’s previous opponents did not: a packed Berlin crowd and the confidence that comes from three straight wins. If the hosts can keep the game physical and prevent Belgium from controlling the half-court through Meesseman and Allemand, this could become one of the most compelling quarterfinals of the day.
France is also already safely in the quarterfinals after cruising through Group B at 3-0.
The French were arguably the most dominant team of the group stage, beating Hungary 99-53, Korea 95-69 and Nigeria 111-56. Gabby Williams has been outstanding, leading the tournament at 18.7 points per game while also providing elite defense and transition play. France’s combination of athleticism, depth and defensive versatility makes it one of the strongest challengers to Team USA.
France will face the winner of today’s Puerto Rico-China qualification game.
China finished second in Group D after losing to the United States but then responding with victories over Czechia and Italy. Han Xu has been one of the tournament’s most productive interior players, averaging 11.3 rebounds and ranking near the top of the efficiency leaderboard. Puerto Rico, meanwhile, finished third in Group C and has been led by Trinity San Antonio, Arella Guirantes and Imani McGee-Stafford. McGee-Stafford currently leads the tournament in rebounding at 13.0 per game.
China should be viewed as the favorite to advance because of its size, recent form and experience from reaching the 2022 World Cup final. Puerto Rico, however, reached the quarterfinals four years ago and has enough perimeter creation to make the matchup dangerous. Whoever survives will face a France team that has so far looked capable of winning the entire tournament.
The final quarterfinal spot will come from Italy against Australia, with group winner Spain waiting on the other side.
Spain earned direct qualification by topping Group A. Its tournament has not been completely straightforward: Spain beat Germany convincingly, lost unexpectedly to Mali, and then defeated Japan 79-59 to secure first place. That loss to Mali demonstrated that Spain is not invulnerable, but its combination of experience, physicality and tournament pedigree makes it a serious medal contender.
Australia enters today’s qualification game after finishing second behind Belgium in Group C. The Opals beat Puerto Rico and Türkiye but lost 80-68 to Belgium. Their frontcourt, led by Ezi Magbegor, remains one of the tournament’s strongest, and Australia is trying to reach a fourth consecutive Women’s World Cup podium.
Italy has already shown that it cannot be overlooked. The Italians pushed the United States to the limit in a 55-52 group-stage loss before beating Czechia and then falling to China. Cecilia Zandalasini gives Italy an experienced scorer capable of changing a knockout game, and the narrow defeat to Team USA proved they can compete against elite opposition.
Australia should enter as the slight favorite because of its size, experience and deeper history in this stage of the tournament, but this is probably the most evenly balanced qualification matchup remaining.
That leaves the quarterfinal picture looking like this: USA against Hungary and Belgium against Germany are already confirmed. France will face the winner of Puerto Rico-China, while Spain will meet the winner of Italy-Australia. All four quarterfinals will be played Thursday in Berlin.
The hierarchy is also becoming clearer.
The United States remains the favorite because of its unmatched depth and championship history. France has arguably been the most impressive team so far and looks like the strongest immediate threat. Belgium’s experience and chemistry make the European champions another legitimate title contender, while Spain remains dangerous despite its uneven group stage.
Germany, Hungary and whichever teams survive Wednesday’s qualification games now enter the stage where one great performance can completely change the tournament.
The group stage established the favorites.
From here, there are no safety nets.
